Black Powder Command Rolls

I thought I should elaborate a bit on something I mentioned in my review of Black Powder. I wrote that when you roll to carry out your orders, you roll 2D6 and compare the result to your Command Value, which is normally 8, but which can be modified. If you score greater than the modified value, you normally do not carry out your orders. If you score equal or one less, you can move one move segment. If you score two less, you can move two move segments. If you score three or more less, you can move three move segments.

I brought it up because the expected results of this mechanic seem strange, in that you are often less likely to get two move segments than either getting one or three. It seems like the intention should be that when your command value is modified to be lower than normal, you should be more likely to get no moves than to get one, more likely to get one than two, and more likely to get two than three. By the same token, when you have positive modifiers so that your command value is high, you should be very likely to get three moves, less likely to get two, even less likely to get one, and unlikely to get zero.

I came up with a simple change to the rules that I think reflects this desired result much better, and makes more sense. If you roll two or three less than your modified command value, you get two moves. If you roll four or more lower, you get three moves. I've created a chart below to show how this affects the resultant probabilities. On the left is the rule as it is stated in the book, and the right is my change. For each command value, it shows the number of rolls, out of 36 possible outcomes, will result in each number of moves. So, for example, "2 moves: 9" means a 9/36 chance of getting two move segments.

Black Powder Rules	My Version
Command Value 12	Command Value 12
0 moves: 0	0 moves: 0
1 move: 3	1 move: 3
2 moves: 3	2 moves: 7
3 moves: 30	3 moves: 26
Command Value 11	Command Value 11
0 moves: 1	0 moves: 1
1 move: 5	1 move: 5
2 moves: 4	2 moves: 9
3 moves: 26	3 moves: 21
Command Value 10	Command Value 10
0 moves: 3	0 moves: 3
1 move: 7	1 move: 7
2 moves: 5	2 moves: 11
3 moves: 21	3 moves: 15
Command Value 9	Command Value 9
0 moves: 6	0 moves: 6
1 move: 9	1 move: 9
2 moves: 6	2 moves: 11
3 moves: 15	3 moves: 10
Command Value 8	Command Value 8
0 moves: 10	0 moves: 10
1 move: 11	1 move: 11
2 moves: 5	2 moves: 9
3 moves: 10	3 moves: 6
Command Value 7	Command Value 7
0 moves: 15	0 moves: 15
1 move: 11	1 move: 11
2 moves: 4	2 moves: 7
3 moves: 6	3 moves: 3
Command Value 6	Command Value 6
0 moves: 21	0 moves: 21
1 move: 9	1 move: 9
2 moves: 3	2 moves: 5
3 moves: 3	3 moves: 1
Command Value 5	Command Value 5
0 moves: 26	0 moves: 26
1 move: 7	1 move: 7
2 moves: 2	2 moves: 3
3 moves: 1	3 moves: 0
Command Value 4	Command Value 4
0 moves: 30	0 moves: 30
1 move: 5	1 move: 5
2 moves: 1	2 moves: 1
3 moves: 0	3 moves: 0

While not a massive difference, I think my rule change gives a better, more logical result in all cases. It also has a beautiful symmetry to it. I think I'll try playing with this minor change. While I doubt it will make a huge noticable difference, I'll feel better knowing the probabilities make more sense. If you're playing Black Powder, give this rule change a try and let me know what you think.